Abstract Detail

Abstract

In this paper, risk management strategies to minimize total damage due to COVID-19 are proposed. Total damage includes direct and indirect damage by infection and regulation respectively. The regulation of people’s activities involves trade-offs between direct and indirect damage; thus, risk management should consider them. In implementing risk management strategies, the government must engage in risk communication to change people’s behavior. Furthermore, the expansion of medical capacity is also necessary for risk management. The theoretical mechanisms of how medical capacity expansion reduces optimal total damage due to COVID-19 and the optimal level of regulation is described. This presentation will present methods and examples for estimating the impact size of variables related to various policies, such as behavioral restrictions and vaccinations, that affect the effective reproduction number and the number of deaths, and will provide concrete examples of how to minimize social damage.

What will the audience take away from your presentation? (Try to list 3-5 specific items)

• Basic strategies for risk management to minimize total damage due to infectious disease
• Statistical method to estimate the impact size of various policies that affect the damage of infectious disease
• Estimated impact size of various policies that affect the damage of infectious disease

Biography

Satoshi Fujii was born in 1968 and graduated from Kyoto University in 1991. He is currently a Professor of Urban Management and a Director of the Resilience Research Unit at Kyoto University. His primary research interests include risk psychology, risk management, building national resilience, political science, macroeconomics, and social dilemmas. In these fields, he has a prolific publication record, with over 400 scientific papers and more than 80 books to his name.